MINISTER OF TOURISM Richard Sealy has struck an optimistic note on the outlook for Barbados despite severe economic problems in the United States and spin-off effects on other countries around the world.

Given the latest message from the just concluded World Travel Market in Britain – that the Caribbean should pursue the long mooted strategy of a joint marketing plan – we appreciate the minister's approach.

Some may regard it as seeing the glass half full rather than half empty, that is, putting a bold face on a situation that is less than ideal. But national economies, like individual commercial entities, usually benefit when investors inspire confidence by projecting positive images.

An atmosphere of gloom is never desirable. In any event, the reality is that tourism has consistently proved to be more resilient than most other industries.

Military flare-ups in the Middle East, terrorist bombings in New York, Washington, England, Spain, Bali and other places failed to make a lasting negative impact on people's desire to travel.

It is worth remembering that seven years ago in response to an expected downturn in American arrivals, with consequential loss of business for Barbados' wider hospitality sector, the then Government quickly went against conventional economic reaction and pumped millions of dollars into supporting the main local tourism stakeholders.

With that cushion, allied to their own promotional efforts, members of the Barbados Hotel & Tourism Association (BHTA) were able to ride out the initial fall-off due to fears generated by the atrocities of September 11, 2001.

This time, however, fear and uncertainty are spreading from a different crisis.

The international financial meltdown is striking directly at the pockets of people who would otherwise be able to pay for vacations and business travel outside the United States and Britain in particular.

Unemployment is now at very troubling levels in Britain where the influential Bank of England is forecasting a grim period ahead, notably with job losses up to 1.8 million in 2008 – the worst in 11 years.

Joblessness in the United States stands at a 14-year 6.5 per cent high with as many as ten million people out of work within 12 months. Meanwhile Germany, Europe's largest economy, has just slipped into recession.

Ironically, since the international financial crisis began, Canada, another important source market for Barbados' tourism, has registered job increases of more than 9 000 in October, but that contrasts with 107 000 in September.

The CARICOM region, which accounts for a significant portion of Barbados' tourism business, is also feeling the effects of a creeping global recession. In the circumstances we hope that events will prove the minister right on his expectation of a good winter season and on his view that there should be no undue disquiet in a sector where visitor arrivals are spread more "evenly across source markets" than is the case with some other destinations.

In fact, this island would appear to be in a much better position than The Bahamas, for example, whose economy depends predominantly on American visitors and investors. In an address to that nation last week, Prime Minister Hubert Ingraham pointed to a steady decline in arrivals over the past three years that is now worsened by crisis in the global financial system.

Major hotels were having their lowest occupancies in many years, advanced bookings were poor with no sign of improvement any time soon, and "unemployment is now a serious concern" as "many workers in the tourism sector face the prospect of lay-off or unemployment for a considerable period".

Projections are only slightly better for the rest of the Caribbean.

Following recent meetings of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank in Washington, concerning what is relevant to Antigua and Barbuda, it was clearly suggested that the American financial crisis would negatively impact this region's tourism.

This is not comforting to those CARICOM member countries which, up to now, have been trying to reassure their populations that the structures and functions of their banks and other financial institutions, not to mention national economies, were sufficiently protected against the international crisis.

Quite apart from the undoubted merits of having a more diversified source market than other destinations, our own Minister of Tourism is doing the only thing left to him in the prevailing environment: attempting to inspire confidence, without which investment and tourism promotion could shrink to dangerous levels.